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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 20 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 18 – Los Angeles Rams 15

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to LA 31, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Austin to LA 39 for 8 yards (51-E.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.60 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model