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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 15 – Minnesota Vikings 18

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.59 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model