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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 5

Washington Commanders 0 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(:16) 3-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 5, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model