4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2015-11-08 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

WAS
27.6%
NE
72.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.185 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.297 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS on 4 more days rest than NE
  • WAS offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 17
–
NE 26
Projected margin: NE by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

WAS

Chris Culliver CB Questionable Knee
Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Hamstring
DeAngelo Hall CB Questionable Toe
DeSean Jackson WR Questionable Hamstring
Ryan Kerrigan LB Questionable Hand
Kory Lichtensteiger C Questionable Neck
Keenan Robinson LB Questionable Rib
Quinton Dunbar CB Probable Illness
Jason Hatcher DE Probable Knee
Josh LeRibeus C Probable Shoulder
Perry Riley LB Probable Lower Leg
Chris Thompson RB Probable Back

NE

Marcus Cannon T Out Toe
Tre' Jackson G Out Knee
Jabaal Sheard DE Out Ankle
Ryan Wendell C Doubtful Knee
Keshawn Martin WR Questionable Hamstring
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Knee
Julian Edelman WR Probable Knee
Dion Lewis RB Probable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 10
–
NE 27

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:06 TD NE (9:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 04:33 TD NE (4:33) 69-S.Mason reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-34-T.Robinson, Defensive 12 On-field, declined. WAS 0 – NE 13
  • Q2 07:59 FG NE (7:59) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. WAS 0 – NE 17
  • Q2 00:16 FG WAS (:16) 3-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – NE 17
  • Q3 07:35 FG NE (7:35) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. WAS 3 – NE 20
  • Q4 11:33 TD NE (11:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 38-B.Bolden for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – NE 26
  • Q4 00:29 TD WAS (:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 86-J.Reed for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – NE 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 64%

    (11:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman to WAS 28 for 5 yards (52-K.Robinson).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:39) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NE 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-J.Edelman to NE 32 for -2 yards (96-H.Bates).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 56%

    (13:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 88-P.Garcon (26-L.Ryan).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (7:59) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (:16) 3-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (7:35) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:10) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to NE 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:16) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to WAS 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 30 for 9 yards (43-N.Ebner; 18-M.Slater).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:24) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to NE 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-22-D.Everett.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:23) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to NE 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 33 for 5 yards. PENALTY on NE-23-P.Chung, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 27.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 14 at the 38 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 50%

    (3:57) 6-R.Allen punts 21 yards to WAS 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.