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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 33

New England Patriots 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman to WAS 28 for 5 yards (52-K.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.18 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model