Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 66

Washington Commanders 3 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to NE 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 33 for 5 yards. PENALTY on NE-23-P.Chung, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.86 EP
64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model