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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 15

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 7-C.Catanzaro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.09 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model