Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- ARI offense: +0.181 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- SEA defense: -0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- Carson Palmer (ARI): +0.357 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- SEA offense: -0.009 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- ARI defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 10
ARI
SEA
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 12:55 FG ARI (12:55) 7-C.Catanzaro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 3 – SEA 0
- Q2 12:25 SAF ARI (12:25) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 2 for -10 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA 0. 3-R.Wilson tackled in End Zone, SAFETY (92-F.Rucker). ARI 5 – SEA 0
- Q2 06:48 TD ARI (6:48) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep right to 15-M.Floyd for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 11 – SEA 0
- Q2 04:08 TD ARI (4:08) 3-C.Palmer pass deep left to 15-M.Floyd pushed ob at SEA 1 for 34 yards (26-C.Williams). Arizona challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 3-C.Palmer pass deep left to 15-M.Floyd for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 18 – SEA 0
- Q2 01:55 TD SEA (1:55) 78-A.Bailey reported in as eligible. 46-W.Tukuafu up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-90-C.Redding was injured during the play. He is Out. ARI 19 – SEA 6
- Q2 00:03 FG ARI (:03) 7-C.Catanzaro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 22 – SEA 7
- Q3 11:22 FG SEA (11:22) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. ARI 22 – SEA 10
- Q3 06:33 FG ARI (6:33) 7-C.Catanzaro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 25 – SEA 10
- Q3 04:58 TD SEA (4:58) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 25 – SEA 16
- Q4 14:49 TD SEA (14:49) (Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 25 – SEA 23
- Q4 13:08 TD SEA (13:08) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer sacked at ARI 24 for -9 yards (50-K.Wright). FUMBLES (50-K.Wright) [50-K.Wright], RECOVERED by SEA-54-B.Wagner at ARI 22. 54-B.Wagner for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 25 – SEA 29
- Q4 08:45 TD ARI (8:45) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 84-J.Gresham for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 31 – SEA 29
- Q4 02:07 TD ARI (2:07) (Shotgun) 38-A.Ellington left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 38 – SEA 29
- Q4 01:03 FG SEA (1:03) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. ARI 39 – SEA 32
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(13:34) 2-D.Butler punts 44 yards to SEA 33, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SEA 4th & 12 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(10:30) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to ARI 19, Center-49-C.Gresham. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 19 for no gain (23-S.Terrell).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SEA 4th & 15 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(1:04) 9-J.Ryan punts 39 yards to ARI 46, Center-49-C.Gresham. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at SEA 49 for 5 yards (57-M.Morgan).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ARI 4th & 13 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%
(12:55) 7-C.Catanzaro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 18 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(5:38) 9-J.Ryan punts 57 yards to ARI 31, Center-49-C.Gresham. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at SEA 45 for 24 yards (9-J.Ryan).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 95%
(11:22) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(9:00) 2-D.Butler punts 44 yards to SEA 14, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%
(6:33) 7-C.Catanzaro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ARI 4th & 18 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(3:34) 2-D.Butler punts 46 yards to SEA 43, Center-82-M.Leach. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at ARI 43 for 14 yards (10-B.Golden). PENALTY on SEA-33-K.McCray, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 43. PENALTY on ARI, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced between downs.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 34%
(2:19) 46-W.Tukuafu up the middle to ARI 47 for 1 yard (51-K.Minter). Official measurement. Arizona challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SEA 4th & 15 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 26%
(:48) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to ARI 14, Center-49-C.Gresham, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 15 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 30%
(6:09) 9-J.Ryan punts 30 yards to ARI 20, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.
See the full breakdown →
