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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 88

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 12

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 9-J.Ryan punts 57 yards to ARI 31, Center-49-C.Gresham. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at SEA 45 for 24 yards (9-J.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.39 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 88, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model