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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 22

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.18 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP