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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 58

Arizona Cardinals 22 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 2-D.Butler punts 44 yards to SEA 14, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.65 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model