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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 22 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 7-C.Catanzaro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.99 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model