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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to ARI 19, Center-49-C.Gresham. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 19 for no gain (23-S.Terrell).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.27 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model