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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 29 – Arizona Cardinals 32

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 9-J.Ryan punts 30 yards to ARI 20, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.38 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model