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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 7 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.55 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model