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Carolina Panthers

9-0 HC Ron Rivera
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Tennessee Titans

2-7 HC Ken Whisenhunt
Sunday 2015-11-15 · 13:00 ET Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CAR
60.6%
TEN
39.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22 15–29
–
TEN 21 14–28
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 10

CAR

Andrew Norwell G Out Hamstring
Dwan Edwards DT Questionable Ankle
Ed Dickson TE Probable Quadricep
Ryan Kalil C Probable Ankle
Luke Kuechly LB Probable Ankle
Jonathan Stewart RB Probable Ankle

TEN

Jason McCourty CB Out Groin
Kendall Wright WR Out Knee
Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Questionable Hamstring
Perrish Cox CB Questionable Hamstring
Zach Brown LB Probable Knee
Dexter McCluster RB Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 27
–
TEN 10

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:43 TD CAR (8:43) (Shotgun) 28-J.Stewart left guard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – TEN 0
  • Q1 03:47 TD TEN (3:47) 22-D.McCluster right tackle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CAR 7 – TEN 6
  • Q2 13:17 TD CAR (13:17) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 84-E.Dickson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – TEN 7
  • Q2 07:51 FG TEN (7:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. CAR 14 – TEN 10
  • Q3 00:28 FG CAR (:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 17 – TEN 10
  • Q4 09:10 FG CAR (9:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 20 – TEN 10
  • Q4 02:48 TD CAR (2:48) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 26 – TEN 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:59) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to CAR 37, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 81%

    (7:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:12) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 48 yards to TEN 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (1:17) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to CAR 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-T.Ginn for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CAR-14-J.Webb, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 24.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:12) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to 50, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%

    (5:30) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to TEN 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:11) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to CAR 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 41 for 15 yards (52-S.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to CAR 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-T.Ginn to TEN 43 for 23 yards (39-D.Stafford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.99 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (9:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:40) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to CAR 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 36 for 12 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

    See the full breakdown →