Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- TEN offense: -0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- CAR defense: -0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- CAR offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- TEN defense: -0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 10
CAR
TEN
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:43 TD CAR (8:43) (Shotgun) 28-J.Stewart left guard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – TEN 0
- Q1 03:47 TD TEN (3:47) 22-D.McCluster right tackle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CAR 7 – TEN 6
- Q2 13:17 TD CAR (13:17) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 84-E.Dickson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – TEN 7
- Q2 07:51 FG TEN (7:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. CAR 14 – TEN 10
- Q3 00:28 FG CAR (:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 17 – TEN 10
- Q4 09:10 FG CAR (9:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 20 – TEN 10
- Q4 02:48 TD CAR (2:48) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 26 – TEN 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(13:59) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to CAR 37, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 81%
(7:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(4:12) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 48 yards to TEN 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 68%
(1:17) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to CAR 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-T.Ginn for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CAR-14-J.Webb, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 24.
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(:12) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to 50, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
-
Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%
(5:30) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to TEN 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.
-
Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EPp(convert) 70%
(4:11) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to CAR 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 41 for 15 yards (52-S.Johnson).
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(13:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to CAR 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-T.Ginn to TEN 43 for 23 yards (39-D.Stafford).
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 1Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.99 EPp(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%
(9:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:40) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to CAR 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 36 for 12 yards (48-B.Brinkley).