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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 82

Tennessee Titans 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:59) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to CAR 37, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.64 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model