4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 10 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to CAR 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-T.Ginn for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CAR-14-J.Webb, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 24.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.65 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP