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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 14 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:30) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to TEN 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.34 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model