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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 1

Carolina Panthers 17 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(9:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +3.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.99 EP