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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 80

Tennessee Titans 10 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(7:40) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to CAR 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 36 for 12 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.23 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model