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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 88

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 6-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to CHI 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 35 for 6 yards (53-D.Bates; 31-M.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 88, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model