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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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STL Home

St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2015-11-15 · 13:00 Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CHI
50.2%
STL
49.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CHI: Nick Foles (LA) -0.186 vs Jay Cutler (CHI) +0.124 EPA/dropback
  • LA offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CHI offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 23
–
STL 20
Projected margin: CHI by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

CHI

Eddie Royal WR Out Knee
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee
Jermon Bushrod T Questionable Shoulder
Matt Forte RB Questionable Knee
Hroniss Grasu C Questionable Neck
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Groin
Shea McClellin LB Questionable Knee
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Hip
Antrel Rolle S Questionable Ankle
Mitch Unrein DT Probable Illness

STL

Chris Long DE Doubtful Knee
Rob Havenstein T Questionable Ankle
T.J. McDonald S Questionable Foot
Robert Quinn DE Questionable Knee
Akeem Ayers LB Probable Illness
Todd Gurley RB Probable Not Injury Related
Chase Reynolds RB Probable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 37
–
STL 13

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:04 TD LA (12:04) (Shotgun) 30-T.Gurley right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – STL 6
  • Q1 11:24 TD CHI (11:24) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 86-Z.Miller for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – STL 7
  • Q1 05:12 FG LA (5:12) 4-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. CHI 7 – STL 10
  • Q1 00:06 FG CHI (:06) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 10 – STL 10
  • Q2 07:00 TD CHI (7:00) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 86-Z.Miller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – STL 10
  • Q2 05:15 TD CHI (5:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 33-J.Langford for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 23 – STL 10
  • Q3 02:45 FG LA (2:45) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. CHI 24 – STL 13
  • Q4 11:27 FG CHI (11:27) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 27 – STL 13
  • Q4 08:09 FG CHI (8:09) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 30 – STL 13
  • Q4 04:58 TD CHI (4:58) 33-J.Langford right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 36 – STL 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:37) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to CHI 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 22 for 1 yard (15-B.Marquez). FUMBLES (15-B.Marquez), RECOVERED by LA-31-M.Alexander at CHI 20. 31-M.Alexander to CHI 17 for 3 yards (80-M.Mariani).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

    (5:12) 4-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (1:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to LA 16, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (:06) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:10) 6-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to CHI 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 35 for 6 yards (53-D.Bates; 31-M.Alexander).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 59%

    (11:17) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 33-J.Langford pushed ob at LA 27 for 11 yards (23-R.McLeod).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to CHI 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani. PENALTY on CHI-24-A.Ball, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 14 yards, enforced at CHI 28.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 60 yards to CHI 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-M.Mariani pushed ob at CHI 19 for 4 yards (38-C.Davis).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 19 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:58) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to LA 38, Center-43-T.Gafford. 11-T.Austin to LA 34 for -4 yards (31-C.Prosinski; 11-J.Bellamy). LA-11-T.Austin was injured during the play.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to CHI 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:39) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to LA 35, Center-43-T.Gafford. 11-T.Austin to LA 45 for 10 yards (36-S.Martin).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 30%

    (11:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 19 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (7:10) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to LA 7, Center-43-T.Gafford. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 17 for 10 yards (36-S.Martin).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

    (2:45) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (11:27) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:21) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass incomplete short left to 38-C.Davis.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%

    (8:09) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass incomplete short right to 83-B.Quick (21-T.Porter).