Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 79

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to CHI 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani. PENALTY on CHI-24-A.Ball, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 14 yards, enforced at CHI 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.44 EP
64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model