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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 60 yards to CHI 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-M.Mariani pushed ob at CHI 19 for 4 yards (38-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 32, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model