Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 90

Chicago Bears 24 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to LA 38, Center-43-T.Gafford. 11-T.Austin to LA 34 for -4 yards (31-C.Prosinski; 11-J.Bellamy). LA-11-T.Austin was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -3.47 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.07 EP
74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 90, worth -5.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model