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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 20

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model