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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 19

Chicago Bears 24 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.00 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 19, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model