4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 8

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 4-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +3.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.68 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 8, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP