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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 58

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to LA 16, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 58, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP