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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 17

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(:06) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.21 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 17, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model