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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 42

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 32 yards to PIT 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-Jac.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 10. 13-Jac.Jones to PIT 10 for no gain (51-B.Mingo).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.42 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model