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Cleveland Browns

HC Mike Pettine
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2015-11-15 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CLE
32.1%
PIT
67.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Johnny Manziel (CLE): -0.089 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CLE on 3 more days rest than PIT

Predicted Final Score

CLE 17
–
PIT 24
Projected margin: PIT by 7 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

CLE

Joe Haden CB Out Concussion
Donte Whitner S Out Concussion
Joel Bitonio G Out Ankle
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Illness
Ibraheim Campbell S Questionable Hamstring
Josh McCown QB Questionable Ribs
Jordan Poyer S Questionable Shoulder
Brian Hartline WR Probable Concussion
Andrew Hawkins WR Probable Concussion
Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow

PIT

James Harrison LB Out Knee
Matt Spaeth TE Out Knee
Shamarko Thomas S Out Knee
Terence Garvin LB Out Knee
Ben Roethlisberger QB Questionable Foot
Marcus Gilbert T Probable Toe
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Probable Hamstring
Will Johnson RB Probable Back
Steve McLendon DT Probable Elbow
Heath Miller TE Probable Not Injury Related
Isaiah Pead RB Probable Knee
Ryan Shazier LB Probable Knee
DeAngelo Williams RB Probable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 9
–
PIT 30

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:02 FG PIT (11:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. CLE 0 – PIT 3
  • Q1 08:09 FG CLE (8:09) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 3 – PIT 3
  • Q1 04:49 FG PIT (4:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. CLE 3 – PIT 6
  • Q2 03:32 TD PIT (3:32) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – PIT 12
  • Q2 00:42 TD PIT (:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 10-M.Bryant for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – PIT 20
  • Q3 08:36 FG PIT (8:36) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. CLE 3 – PIT 24
  • Q4 12:33 TD CLE (12:33) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short right to 82-G.Barnidge for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – PIT 24
  • Q4 09:17 TD PIT (9:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – PIT 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CLE 23, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-21-R.Golden.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 97%

    (11:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (8:09) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 92%

    (4:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 39%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 32 yards to PIT 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-Jac.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 10. 13-Jac.Jones to PIT 10 for no gain (51-B.Mingo).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 17 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 23%

    (7:25) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 41 yards to PIT 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-Jac.Jones.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (1:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 10-M.Bryant.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:15) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 46 yards to CLE 47, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-24-J.Bademosi.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:19) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 41 yards to PIT 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-Jac.Jones.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (8:36) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (14:18) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short right intended for 16-A.Hawkins INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Mitchell at PIT 0. 23-M.Mitchell to PIT 9 for 9 yards (11-T.Benjamin). Penalty on CLE-72-M.Schwartz, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (6:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel to PIT 5 for 6 yards (20-W.Allen). CLE-18-T.Gabriel was injured during the play. Pittsburgh challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (5:49) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass incomplete short left to 82-G.Barnidge. Coverage by #23 Mitchell.