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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 1

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(1:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 10-M.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO +4.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.29 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 1, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model