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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(8:36) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.33 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 7, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP