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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 11

Cleveland Browns 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 30

What Actually Happened

(6:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel to PIT 5 for 6 yards (20-W.Allen). CLE-18-T.Gabriel was injured during the play. Pittsburgh challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.52 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP