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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 5

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:09) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model