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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 16

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(4:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.24 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP