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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(:51) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to TB 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.98 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP