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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Lovie Smith
Sunday 2015-11-15 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DAL
43.8%
TB
56.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Matt Cassel (DAL): -0.154 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 19
–
TB 21
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DAL

Brice Butler WR Out Hamstring
Sean Lee LB Out Concussion
Rolando McClain LB Questionable Hand
Nick Hayden DT Questionable Ankle
Anthony Hitchens LB Questionable Ankle
Matt Cassel QB Probable Knee
Jack Crawford DE Probable Hand
James Hanna TE Probable Ankle
Demarcus Lawrence DE Probable Back
Christine Michael RB Probable Illness
Rod Smith RB Probable Illness
Dez Bryant WR Probable Foot
Brandon Carr CB Probable Shoulder
Barry Church S Probable Ankle
Jeff Heath S Probable Shoulder

TB

Vincent Jackson WR Out Knee
Ali Marpet G Out Ankle
Jacquies Smith DE Out Ankle
D.J. Swearinger S Doubtful Toe
Bradley McDougald S Questionable Concussion
Major Wright S Questionable Hamstring
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Questionable Shoulder
Gerald McCoy DT Probable Shoulder
Tony McDaniel DT Probable Not Injury Related
Alterraun Verner CB Probable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 6
–
TB 10

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:00 FG DAL (4:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – TB 0
  • Q2 14:56 FG TB (14:56) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. DAL 3 – TB 3
  • Q2 10:41 FG DAL (10:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – TB 3
  • Q4 00:59 TD TB (:59) 3-J.Winston right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – TB 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:42) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to TB 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:31) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 43 yards to DAL 26, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 48 for 22 yards (50-B.Carter, 45-O.Lemon).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 18 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 82%

    (4:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 60%

    (14:56) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 58%

    (10:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 75%

    (7:52) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 70%

    (3:37) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (:51) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to TB 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:33) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 49 yards to DAL 29, Center-48-A.DePaola. 13-L.Whitehead ran ob at DAL 29 for no gain.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 24%

    (10:22) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 33 yards to TB 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey. PENALTY on TB-91-J.Shirley, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TB 15.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:11) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 35 yards to DAL 23, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 24 for 1 yard (89-R.Shepard).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 18%

    (3:03) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to TB 4, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-27-J.Wilcox.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 26%

    (14:07) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 40 yards to DAL 7, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-33-K.McFadden.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:03) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to TB 8, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 5. 43-B.Rainey to TB 8 for 3 yards (57-D.Wilson).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (4:08) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to TB 44, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.