Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 6

(13:33) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 49 yards to DAL 29, Center-48-A.DePaola. 13-L.Whitehead ran ob at DAL 29 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 78, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model