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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 48

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 33 yards to TB 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey. PENALTY on TB-91-J.Shirley, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TB 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model