Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

(10:31) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 43 yards to DAL 26, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 48 for 22 yards (50-B.Carter, 45-O.Lemon).

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.42 EP
65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model