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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(14:07) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 40 yards to DAL 7, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-33-K.McFadden.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.62 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model