Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 61

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:03) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to TB 8, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 5. 43-B.Rainey to TB 8 for 3 yards (57-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.25 EP
58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model