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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 24

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.52 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model