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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 46

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to GB 7, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-59-T.Whitehead.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.81 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP