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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2015-11-15 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

DET
30.6%
GB
69.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.132 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.070 EPA/dropback
  • GB offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DET on 7 more days rest than GB
  • DET defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 18
–
GB 26
Projected margin: GB by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DET

Rashean Mathis CB Out Concussion
Isa Abdul-Quddus S Questionable Foot
Calvin Johnson WR Questionable Ankle
James Ihedigbo S Probable Shoulder
Travis Lewis LB Probable Groin
Darius Slay CB Probable Head
Josh Wilson CB Probable Neck

GB

Eddie Lacy RB Questionable Groin
Ty Montgomery WR Questionable Ankle
Mike Neal LB Questionable Hip
Sam Shields CB Questionable Shoulder
Morgan Burnett S Probable Ankle
Casey Hayward CB Probable Concussion
Micah Hyde S Probable Quadricep
T.J. Lang G Probable Back
Damarious Randall CB Probable Illness
Quinten Rollins CB Probable Neck
Bryan Bulaga T Probable Knee
James Jones WR Probable Quadricep
Clay Matthews LB Probable Ankle
Nick Perry LB Probable Shoulder
Josh Sitton G Probable Back

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 18
–
GB 16

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:11 FG GB (10:11) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. DET 0 – GB 3
  • Q2 00:17 FG DET (:17) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – GB 3
  • Q3 13:37 TD DET (13:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 87-B.Pettigrew for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – GB 3
  • Q4 13:15 FG DET (13:15) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 12 – GB 3
  • Q4 05:59 TD GB (5:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 82-R.Rodgers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 12 – GB 9
  • Q4 02:00 TD DET (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 16-L.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 18 – GB 10
  • Q4 00:36 TD GB (:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-J.Perillo for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 18 – GB 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 81%

    (10:11) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 11 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:27) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to GB 38, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 39 for 1 yard (38-G.Winn).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:24) 8-T.Masthay punts 39 yards to DET 20, Center-61-B.Goode. 15-G.Tate pushed ob at DET 26 for 6 yards (83-J.Janis).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:34) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to GB 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-38-G.Winn.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:06) 8-T.Masthay punts 55 yards to DET 4, Center-61-B.Goode. 15-G.Tate to DET 15 for 11 yards (22-A.Ripkowski).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:56) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to GB 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-M.Hyde pushed ob at GB 21 for 6 yards (38-G.Winn).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (15:00) 8-T.Masthay punts 54 yards to DET 23, Center-61-B.Goode. 15-G.Tate to DET 46 for 23 yards (8-T.Masthay).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 33%

    (13:36) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to GB 7, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-59-T.Whitehead.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 31%

    (8:24) 8-T.Masthay punts 44 yards to DET 3, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-24-Q.Rollins.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (3:17) 9-M.Stafford right guard to DET 42 for 1 yard (90-B.Raji; 96-M.Neal).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 43%

    (1:38) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to GB 5, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-10-C.Fuller.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (:53) 8-T.Masthay punts 41 yards to DET 47, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 71%

    (:17) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:54) 8-T.Masthay punts 25 yards to GB 47, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 38%

    (11:28) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to GB 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 40%

    (8:18) 8-T.Masthay punts 36 yards to DET 7, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-83-J.Janis.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (15:00) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to DET 46, Center-61-B.Goode. 15-G.Tate to DET 45 for -1 yards (22-A.Ripkowski).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 67%

    (13:15) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 20 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:01) 8-T.Masthay punts 33 yards to DET 25, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (10:09) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to GB 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.