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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 42

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to GB 5, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-10-C.Fuller.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.70 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model