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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 44

Detroit Lions 9 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to GB 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.51 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model